War of Attrition meets War of Aggression

War of Attrition

Michael O'Leary's great Cheltenham performer is set to star on the big stage again at this year's festival. While facing stiff competition and the weakness of advancing age, War of Attrition has delivered in the past and has little left to prove.

As they return from meeting with President Obama on St Patrick's Day, the name of this superb horse is a reminder to the First Ministers in Northern Ireland of the short-term and longer-term pressures they will face in reviving our structurally untenable, long-neglected and currently weakening economy.

Devolution

To the relief of most citizens, the Hillsborough agreement is fully in place and "normal" politics can begin to operate in this region for the benefit of all its people.

That is, the politicians - all of them - must now take responsibility and address the true economic realities facing Northern Ireland.

The War of Attrition against the economic wellbeing of the population arguably started with the havoc of the Troubles. While structural effects have since been repaired and the reputational damage is fading, the legacy is an unbalanced, dependent, essentially insolvent economy with a relatively weak private sector.

Denial

Up to now, despite repeated warnings by economists and commentators, politicians and people have either occupied themselves by focusing on partisan political posturing or thanks to the credit, property and retail boom, underpinned by seemingly reckless government generosity, deluded themselves that life would continue to be financially OK.

But while these delusional diversions should be all over now, denial is still widespread and evident throughout our society. The war of attrition still threatens.

War of Aggression

There is an urgent need to create a completely new paradigm for action to meet this war of attrition facing our economy. Our current approaches, including the Barnett report even if it were fully implemented, only scratch the surface.

The war is real and demands a War of Aggression in response. The First Ministers must give a lead.

Betting

100/1 against the First Ministers and Executive leading the creation of a new War of Aggression initiative.

200/1 against an initiative reaching a conclusion within 2010.

300/1 against a material initiative being implemented by 2012

400/1 against "War of Aggression" ever happening

Sadly, on past form War of Attrition looks like the bet!

"A future fair for all"

Fair for all?

Am I the only one who feels that their intelligence is being insulted with Labour's campaign theme for the upcoming election?

Maybe it shouldn't matter, because in this neck of the woods of course we cannot vote for them or agin them, but on every news bulletin we will be forced to listen to earnest self-serving expenses cheats lecturing us on how Labour will create this "future fair for all". This is a bit rich coming from the geniuses who created our "past and current free for all" that is currently ruining the competitive capability of Northern Ireland and the wider UK.

All together now!

I have a better idea for their campaign refrain, and this has a much better chance of being delivered. Plus it has a cracking good tune!

"In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

There's a land that's fair and bright

Where the handouts grow on bushes

And you sleep round ev'ry night

Where the workshops are all empty

And the sun shines ev'ry day

Oh, I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow

Where the rain don't fall and the wind don't blow

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains.

Oh, the buzzin' of the bees in the peppermint trees

'Round the soda water fountains

Where the lemonade springs and the bluebird sings

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains"

Whose idea was it to give him that new smile?

I can just see Gordon singing it with that newly manufactured gruesome X -factor smile on his face.

Message to the PM

Gordon, life is not, never has been and never will be "fair". And certainly not "fair for all", because one person's fairness is another person's oppression. For example.

Is it fair that public sector workers are paid 40% more than those in the private sector?

Is it fair that while not all those on benefit are there by choice, many are.

Is it fair that your government colludes with thousands of "economically inactive" shirkers who choose not to work while laying the burden for their support on hard working people?

I could go on and on.

A future fair for all?

Fact - life is not fair. This Labour promise sounds very like "the buzzin of the bees".

The best hope for Gordon, and not an entirely unlikely one at that, is that Cameron's crowd pick an even more unrealistic and patronising theme.

Endangered species - Polar bears and civil servants

Nota Bene

The following is not an attack on all the hard-working public servants who provide essential services and provide them well. It is however, an undisguised assault on the lazy political mindset that has allowed the proliferation of unnecessary activity and the creation of thousands of 'jobs' in our bloated public sector.

'Jobs' that will have to be culled over the next few years, causing medium term disappointment and hardship for many individuals.

Ultimately, the reduction in public sector expenditure will increase the relative strength of the private sector and the overall economy.

Prospect of doom - £400 million cuts

First, the serious bit from Grumpy Old Will. There are major financially-driven curtailments of lifestyle coming down the track for everybody in Western society - and Northern Ireland may well be hit harder than most. The first signs of potential hardship are here already in the form of Minister Sammy Wilson's £400 million cuts - with more to follow!

Per capita, we have the largest, most expensive public sector in Europe. Systemically unsustainable.

Those in power must act quickly and radically to curtail the devastating effects of the NI economic meltdown.

Reality and the Arctic analogy

Now, the tongue in cheek bit from Grumpy Old Will. The 1.7 million of us in NI are like threatened species on the massive, but shrinking, icecap of Westminster subvention, with no solid ground of our own on which to stand.

But every one of us should play our part in saving the most exotic inhabitant of our Northern habitat; the Polar Bear Civil Servant. (PBCS). Here are a few ideas.

Public sector action

First, these not-so-rare creatures should try to save themselves. I would strongly encourage PBCSs to jump for it and swim to join a private sector zoo as soon as they can before the icecap collapses.

(it's getting really hard to extend this analogy - but here's another go)

The Grumpy Old Will adopt a Polar Bear Civil Servant fund

All we private sector taxpayers should contribute to a fund for the adoption of our own PBCSs.

Polar bears depend on the arctic icecap. PBCSs depend on the Westminster icecap. This is where they hunt, mate and raise their young. But the ice is shrinking and we need to protect them and their subvention habitat.

Make a real difference

You can easily adopt these PBCSs - a group of male and female Polar Bear Civil Servants aged between 20 and 60 years old. They all live in the northern archipelago in the Irish Arctic. And you can keep track of their movements with our special online tracker!

Polar Bear CS adoption pack

When you adopt we'll send you a PBCS adoption pack. This includes:

1. A cuddly toy PBCS for you to snuggle

2. A fact booklet on PBCSs with details of their pensions for you to envy

3. A beautiful PBCS print. See this noble animal in full colour

4. Three issues of our support magazine throughout the year with updates about the mating habits of PBCSs, including MPs and MLAs (now resigned/retired) (Enough bare cheek! Ed.)

5. A "Build a Bear" kit. Stuff your own civil servant!

How you can
make a real
difference

Climate change is the biggest threat facing the PBCS. A reduction in sea ice subvention makes access to prey more difficult and means many cannot put on enough weight to survive. Your money can help us work towards:

Conserving the Northern Irish Arctic region's rich biodiversity and pensions

Maintaining a healthy Northern Irish Arctic environment with undisturbed ecosystems and healthy populations of PBCS residents.

Now, sponsor a Polar Bear Civil Servant

Think of the joy you can derive from preserving this endangered species in its natural habitat for the delight and admiration of future generations.

It is surely a small price to pay, with the prospect of sustaining these magnificent creatures for many years to come, so that they can spend all summer fishing and gambolling in happy contemplative contentment followed by their long, slumbering, winter hibernation.

Michael O'Leary and Ryanvest NI

(This story is a fantasy, a dream; and perhaps for some, a nightmare)

Early in 2009 when Invest NI, Northern Ireland's economic development agency, was searching for a new Chief Executive, there was a rumour that one of the applicants was Michael O'Leary of Ryanair.

I'm sure this is not true, but there might be something in it, as the informant, formerly close to the great man, has emigrated to Argentina posing as a Nazi war criminal in case O'Leary finds out who he is. He said he would take his chances with the Israeli Mossad.

Before he left he circulated a transcript of Micko's final interview for the job. Apparently, before going into the interview, Michael - with typical arrogance - informed my mole that he intended to use his actual on-the-record media soundbite quotes when he was building the Ryanair empire to answer all questions; changing the context, from the airline industry, to that of economic development but otherwise using the exact words of the original quote.

This is a family blog so I have toned down some of the language. Apart from this, the following is a precise record of the discussion between the distinguished public sector interview panel of Members Undertaking Personnel Profiling for Executive Technical Suitability (MUPPETS) and the applicant (MOL)

MUPPETS Mr O'Leary, with your tremendous success in the private sector with Ryanair, we are delighted at your aspiration to be part of the Invest NI team.

We expect you to work cooperatively through diversity policies, equal opportunity and respect for the rights of individual public sector employees to significant gratuitous sick leave, towards the betterment of Northern Ireland's economic future.

How will you attract loyalty from and positively influence, your partner colleagues - both those inside the organisation and the important external minority stakeholder groups, towards this harmonious end?

MOL I will murder for Ryanvest NI. Geddit? I will go through concrete walls to grow private sector industry in Northern Ireland. I bow down to nobody. I'll stuff every one of them in Europe; we won't be second or third and saying: "didn't we do well?"

I don't give a (very rude word starting with s) if nobody likes me, I am a businessman through and through. I am not a civil servant, I am not an organisationsexual. I don't like state economic support. I never wanted to be a manager like those other platoons of goons who populate the public sector enterprise development industry.

Also, I have no time for that bunch of bearded, sandal-wearing union bosses, not to mention the utterly useless politicians in Stormont and Westminster.

MUPPETS Um..... One of the CEO's responsibilities is to ensure Invest NI's conformance within Europe on regulation and wider issues like climate change. How would you propose to build consensus on these issues?

MOL I fight constantly with governments and idiot Brussels bureaucrats who want to increase regulation, or half-witted environmentalists who can't add two and two.

The sustainable energy group, God help us, is another bunch of lemmings shuffling towards a cliff edge. We also have a Government of lemmings, led by the biggest lemmings of all, who are incapable of making a long-term decision.

We want to annoy the (this is the naughtiest word you can think of and starts with f and ends with ers!) whenever we can. The best thing we can do with environmentalists is shoot them. These headbangers are Luddites marching us back to the 18th century.

The problem with Government and the public sector is it is mostly run by a bunch of spineless nincompoops who acually don't want to stand up to the environmentalists and call them the lying (the script is blurred here. It looks like "bankers", but I'm not sure) that they are.

MUPPETS Er..... OK, and how would you cope with this dreadful economic downturn currently causing all of us such difficulty? We are looking for a CEO who has high concerns on this issue.

MOL Well it doesn't concern me! We need this recession. We have had 10 years of growth. This recession gets rid of crappy high-cost public services and it means we can then grow the private companies.

I would also welcome a good, deep, bloody recession for 12 to 18 months. We need one if we are going to see off some of this environmental nonsense that has become so popular among the chattering classes.

MUPPETS (visibly wilting) How would you describe your personal attributes of diplomacy that prepare you for dealing with important Stormont Ministers and those in high places?

MOL I'm probably just an obnoxious little (starts with b and ends with cks!). Who cares?

I'm disrespectful towards authority. Like I think the prime minister of Ireland is a gobshi...(I'm afraid I have to stop this statement here, as two MUPPETS fainted and a recess was called)

(Interlude for smelling salts and to allow the Members Undertaking Personnel Profiling for Executive Technical Suitability to fill out their expenses claims)

Interview resumes -----

MUPPETS Really, Mr O'Leary. We do not want to appear prudish, but we must ask you to moderate your language.

Now, in Northern Ireland there has in the past been what is described as a "grant culture". How would you deal with undeserving demands for grants?

MOL When I am running Ryanvest NI I won't fall all over myself if they say my granny fell ill and my business is struggling. What part of no grants don't you understand? You are not getting a grant so (the very very very bad word) off!

Also as far as the IDA, Enterprise Ireland and Scottish Enterprise are concerned there is too much: "we really admire our competitors". All (roughly rhymes with rowlocks again). Everyone wants to kick the (excrement?) out of everyone else. We want to beat the (more excrement!) out of them. They mean to kick the (ditto) out of us.

MUPPETS (anxiously trying to mollify MOL or end interview) Now, for a family-friendly work/life balance, we would like to assure you that in accordance of the mood of the times, Invest NI wants parents, fathers and mothers alike to have time to jointly share the pleasures and duties of caring for their families.

MOL Look; when my kids arrived I changed the first nappy in the hospital and, called upon in emergency, I will do another. I'm not one of these people who will be there doing the full-time father lark. I go to the Algarve with the family for two weeks because I have to. I only go to films when I'm dragged there by my wife, just for marriage maintenance reasons.

MUPPETS (now visibly struggling and perspiring) You said you go to the gym for relaxation. What do you like to do there?

MOL Look up and down a slim girl's rear. Sadly there's not that many of them. They're a bunch of old sweaty farts!

MUPPETS Um.....Er...... Finally, without any swearing please, how do you see the future for yourself and your ultimate successor in Invest NI?

MOL OK. I think you need me for the rapid growth and the internal cost reduction initiatives, but once they're all done you then need to hand over to somebody who's a bit more respectful of politicians and bureaucrats, talks about caring about the environment and old people and (worst word again, ends ing!) jungles and fish in the sea and all that (excrement again, I'm afraid. The man is incorrigible!).

At this point the transcript records a mass walkout by the MUPPETS.

Your country needs you!

Another open letter to Minister Arlene Foster from Grumpy Old Will

Dear Minister,

Wasted years, wasted wealth

During his reign as Chancellor in the heady days of New Labour, Gordon Brown threw public expenditure at NI to keep the lid on unemployment.

This largesse was delivered over the years almost as a budgetary afterthought from Westminster, and indeed accepted joyfully, if lazily, by Stormont.

Neither party seemed to give any serious thought to applying the massive amounts of money towards creating a coherent strategy for a competitive private sector. Instead they aquiesced in fueling the well documented out-of-control growth of the public sector cuckoo in our economic nest.

A 20 year fix?

In 2006 a group of 10 public-spirited business people produced a private report on the Northern Ireland economy.

Their stark conclusions highlighted a number of areas needing urgent attention but I want to focus on their view, that in order to balance our economy, around 117,000 jobs must be shed in the public sector and in due course replaced with new private sector led jobs.

This equates to a £2 billion annual payroll, and in the opinion of the group it could take 20 years to accomplish the necessary transition.

Now these are not my figures and I am sure there are many experts who can argue them up or down, but whatever the precise numbers, most would agree that we have a problem that seems intractable - and for me, 20 years is far too long.

Minister, break it down to 10,000 jobs a year over 10 years and let's get on with it.

Compulsory military service

The Barnett report made a brief mention of the state of Israel as an exemplar of good practice in economic development, but did not give any clue as to why the Israelis were successful. My blog of December 5th 2009 says why. The mindset.

I would refer you to the book "Start-up Nation". It refers to Israel's innovation, self-reliance, knowledge and networks, but the crucial central driving force of their mindset is "the experience of compulsory army service that truly sets young Israelis apart, ........ helping to equip them with the skills and mindset of entrepreneurs".

No more armies

Now Minister, after our decades of troubles I am certainly not advocating that we create any more armies in Northern Ireland, but I do think we should consider adapting and adopting the model of compulsory economic development service.

General Grumpy's plan

Here are my early thoughts on this.

• Grasp the nettle, but don't just shrink the public sector in an unplanned or unfeeling way.

• Plan a one-year programme of "private sector mindset conditioning" (analogous to compulsory army service) to be run for 10 consecutive years.

• 10,000 participants shifted from the public sector on day one into the programme. 5,000 economically inactive people to be included from day one.

• We are already paying all these folks anyway, or providing them with benefits.

• Involve them as individuals and as teams in skills training, opportunity search, networking with growing, established NI businesses and preparation for integration with the private sector, either as employees or in some cases as entrepreneurs, at the end of their "boot-camp" year.

• It needs to be spread right across the province. On average that only amounts to about 500 people per Council area.

Leadership

Minister, our problems will not be solved incrementally or by political compromise. It will take leadership; radical leadership.

This is a radical approach; there are many clever people who will rubbish it; there are major hurdles to be overcome in its implementation; but the model works in Israel and I don't see anything as potentially worthwhile jumping off the pages of the Barnett report.

Yours sincerely,

Will McKee

Sammy Wilson's smile - be afraid, be very afraid.

An open letter to Minister Arlene Foster from Grumpy Old Will

Dear Minister, The Barnett report and change

Just when I thought that the Barnett report might spur some swift political actions towards stemming our downward economic drift, I am feeling concerned.

Crisis denial

Last week I was confronted with Minister Sammy Wilson's smiling comment, "the impact may not be felt until 2011". This was in response to Alistair Darling's pre-budget announcement that the Westminster financial support for NI remains effectively intact pro tem. And he certainly was not alone in smiling. But ........

While welcome in one sense, this postponement of inevitable cuts means that Sammy, together with all the folks on the hill and our entire populace, can carry on in the torpor of crisis denial. Rather than actually doing something concrete towards dismantling the excess in our monstrous public service and thus over time freeing funds and people for investment in the private sector.

Barnett v G.O. Will

Overall and over time, Professor Barnett suggests sensible structural reorganisation to improve our economic lot, but history shows that any change will be slow in coming.

The Professor's and my views differ significantly on implementation. Two examples.

1. He suggests a reduction in business development training expenditure and increased spend on innovation and research. I propose the exact opposite.

2. Currently, contact centres are a key element in our private sector employment. My views on their importance are diametrically opposed to those of the Barnett report.

Medium-term strategy strand for INI

Let me put forward a possible strand of private sector strategy for Invest NI to be getting on with in the meantime while longer term strategies are being debated.

It focuses on the reality of where we are today and what we can do by developing current opportunities rather than the longer term, where "innovation and research" may pay off.

The background is Invest NI's tremendous success over the last few years in attracting contact centres, together with many companies describing themselves as in "ICT" or "Financial Services", but which are in reality nothing more than contact centres.

Barnett's blindspot

Professor Barnett mistakenly follows traditional economic group-think in disparaging such jobs and by implication the people who perform them. He is so wrong on this; indeed it is alarming that Invest NI themselves, after expending the effort of putting the cluster in place, do not appear to promote the competitiveness of the sector to any great degree.

"many of the new jobs promoted have been in call centres, some of which offer low wages and have contributed little to Invest NI’s mission to boost business productivity".

Minister, this is rubbish. How can such a statement be taken seriously when the numbers of our "economically inactive" continue to rise? All jobs at all levels of expertise and pay are valuable and in many cases contact centres pay very well.

Invest NI has made a real achievement, whether they acknowledge it or not, in putting this key cluster in place. It should be exploited aggressively, not denigrated.

Invest NI actions

These labour-intensive activities are the foundational base on which to build any successful economy and the creation of this cluster of businesses arguably makes NI the "contact centre capital" of Europe.

Action 1. Something we should boast about rather than hide.

Now that we have enough contact centres on board as a base - Action 2. - Invest NI should put a task-force team in place to assist these existing enterprises, both indigenous and FDI, with intensive training and promotion to enhance their international competitiveness and maintain our lead. This is a tremendous opportunity.

Action 3. The concurrent area of focus should be to motivate and support expansion of the next tier of international competitiveness in our existing manufacturing and service businesses. There is much good work already going on here though still enormous scope for future growth.

Contact centre value

Well-run contact centres deliver direct productivity to the economy and are also a hotbed of business skills training for their often young operatives - effectively they are "commercial universities". Many in due course will go on to higher-wage employment in the wider labour force or will become entrepreneurs in their own right. I suspect their alumni produce more start-ups than Queens and UUJ put together.

To substantiate my argument further by specific example, I refer to public domain information on the Irish-owned Belfast contact centre Gem, which is among the cluster of companies to whom the Barnett report gives a negative portrayal.

For the past 10 years Gem has employed hundreds of people and contributed direct wages to the economy of almost £70 million, which by any reasonable multiplier, alone represents a couple of years of Invest NI's total budget!

In addition, the vast bulk of Gem's multi-millions of revenue is generated by international customers bringing valuable foreign exchange into Northern Ireland.

A phenomonal export performance - and a high encouraging note on which to end this letter.

I hope this proposal is of some help.

Yours sincerely,

Will McKee

Arlene Foster's Barnett IREP report - "It's the mindset, stupid"

In 1992 Bill Clinton became President by focussing on a sign on his desk, "It's the economy, stupid". Not a bad general approach for us today but can I suggest a sign for Minister Arlene Foster's desk?



"It's the mindset, stupid" - She might even get to be First Minister!


Professor Richard Barnett's independent review of economic policy demonstrates thorough research, careful analysis, firm conclusions and clear recommendations as to how a "step-change" in policy effectiveness might be achieved towards providing a better life for people in Northern Ireland.


Initial reaction to its launch in September varied from the Belfast Telegraph's hysterical banner headline, worthy of any gutter press red-top, that Invest NI had "wasted" £1 billion of public funds, to a more muted but perhaps more worrying, "welcome" from the Irish Congress of Trade Unions.


I openly admire the efforts of Professor Barnett's team and I do agree that if their recommendations on structural changes were immediately implemented - a mighty big ask, by the way - there is a good chance we would see the hoped for step-change in policy effectiveness.



Unfortunately however, the world of international competitiveness and opportunity has changed significantly, even in the brief time since the report was commissioned.



Frankly, step-change based on structural alteration within DETI just ain't enough anymore. (as Richard Ramsey chief economist of Ulster Bank put it, rearranging the seating plan in the orchestra now that we have the sheet music)



What is needed and needed urgently is not a step-change, but a sea-change in mindset. We have the sheet music and the seating plan - now we need quality entrepreneurial players; highly motivated and with strong positive attitudes towards business establishment and business growth.



This key dimension was only alluded to tangentially in the Barnett report which concentrated on top-down policy change. Bottom-up interventional support is arguably even more important.


Arlene Foster should ask the Professor to follow up his excellent work so far and address the greater problem of how all our people can be brought, through a policy-driven process of sea-change, to a collective mindset of ambition and proud achievement.



Back to the latent ethic of pride, in hard hard work towards economic growth, that in previous generations was an acknowledged character trait of our people.

Where is the Northern Ireland economic "Vision"? - Go on, inspire me!

In 2008 the Irish government decided to position Ireland as an "innovation economy".
Great, but is anything similar happening in the North?


Subsequent difficulties with financial turbulence may have dulled Ireland's focus somewhat, but here are three exciting action signs that this visionary Irish initiative is gaining momentum.


Three actions that should cover the NI government with guilt due to their lack of initiative in providing a clear vision for the economy.


First action; the clear indicator of intent evident in the Spring 09 announcement that the government has signed an agreement with ESB and carmaker Renault-Nissan to radically increase the usage of electric vehicles in Ireland.


Not only does this align Ireland with Israel and Denmark at the forefront of the commercial application of green technology, it also provides a platform for future development of businesses in related areas. There is the additional enormous benefit of branding - Ireland being seen as a leading innovator and thus attracting other innovative initiatives.

The specific business model being used for the roll-out over the next few years was featured in last weekend's Sunday Times magazine - and it looks like a winner. Check out www.betterplace.com/


Second action; the high profile Global Irish Economic Forum held at Farmleigh attracted the interest and continuing attention of powerful, innovative, entrepreneurial world business leaders from the Irish diaspora. There is a Northern (but ignored!) diaspora too.


Third action; Ireland has now secured the hugely important EU research and innovation portfolio, "which resonates very strongly with our own Smart Economy agenda” to quote Brian Cowen. He also said that the Research and Innovation Commissioner, Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, will play a key role in the drive to maintain and create jobs, and stimulate economic growth in Europe.


These three notable actions, together with the overarching vision, inspire me.


In spite of all the obstacles, diversions and difficulties, the people in the Republic have a real vision and economic strategy, led by their much-maligned politicians and being demonstrably implemented. It is actually under way.


In the North, so far as I can see, while small photo-opportunity wins may be achieved, our Ministers and MLAs have no obvious compelling vision or strategy for the economy.



Nothing to excite our imagination. No economic leadership, no vision, no strategy, no action. No inspiration. Just a vacuum. And a mindset of reactivity.


The complete opposite of innovation and entrepreneurship.


Go on, persuade me I'm wrong. I want to be inspired!

Wake-up call for Northern Ireland - Ireland's December budget

While the South of Ireland wakens to a nightmare moment of truth, the North is sleeping like a baby - a very fat baby.


This week's media portrays the Republic of Ireland as an economic basket-case, with an upcoming budget in December which will attempt cuts of €4 billion, not as a stimulus for recovery or to reduce state borrowing but only to stabilise the current account.



Frankly, the Government has no room for manouvre, yet special interest groups from the unions and the public sector are marching in vitriolic opposition to cuts, creating the real spectre of civil unrest to add to the economic woes of our nearest neighbour.


In real terms, the North is in exactly the same boat as the South right now but the politicians at Stormont just tinker at the edges of solving the potential economic disaster.


However bad the short-term prospects in the Republic, at least the debate is making headlines and external pressures are forcing Government actions. These may hopefully result in their regaining international competitiveness through the longer-term expansion of a resurgent private sector.



Despite significantly weaker underlying economic strength, together with endemic market failure, the North sleeps on under the soporific influence of Westminster's £7 billion drug infusion. Parish-pump politicians in Stormont blissfully ignore the potential danger of this supply lifeline being significantly reduced in the future.



The economic structural and systemic failure of NI should be the number one issue for businesses, unions, politicians and society right now - for the paradoxical reason that technically, with sterling's recent effective devaluation, the North's private sector is currently in a strong position to increase overall exports.


But these conditions will not produce any material gain in total for NI, despite many economists' predictions that on the back of exchange rate competitiveness, Britain's exports will grow strongly in 2010 and 2011.



Yes, individual companies will prosper over time, but the overall economy will not benefit significantly in a macro sense, simply because the private sector (muscle) is far too small and weak within the overweight uncompetitive NI body.


To put it bluntly, the North's economy is morbidly obese, fat, unfit and carrying too much weight in the wrong places.


Reducing the relative size of the public sector (fat) in NI has been talked about for years but with little effective action. The discussion always ends up in agreement that the way to do this is to increase the size of the private sector. Yes and NO, NO, NO!



Let's get real and pursue the analogy of the economy and the body. If my body mass index is sky-high and I am morbidly fat my doctor will not tell me to first increase my muscle and everything will be OK. My doctor will tell me to lose fat first - a lot of fat - and then increase my muscle ratio by disciplined food intake and regular exercise.


NI needs to radically and ruthlessly reduce its public sector (fat), thus creating thousands of necessity entrepreneurs to start private businesses and work in existing businesses. This will be extremely painful for a time for the economy and individuals, just like crash dieting, but it will ultimately build muscle in a growing, private sector-led society.


At the moment, thousands of clever highly talented people who could be strengthening the private sector muscle are trapped in, or sheltering in, or hiding in, the fat public sector. Tip them out.


For years they have been hoovered away from productive exporting value-adding contribution by inducements of salaries, pensions, conditions and job security that private sector businesses competing in the real world cannot match.


Come on NornIron! Politicians, people, all of us. Stop kidding ourselves. Our economy doesn't have "heavy bones", it is not the fault of our glands, it is not genetic. We are too fat!


The South is wakening up and beginning to face its problems. The sooner the North wakes up too, the better. It is all about the survival of the fittest - not the fattest!